— thedissenter

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Europe

From a TED presentation, historian Niall Ferguson looks at ’6 killer Apps’ that gained ‘The West’ economic success to date. With economy to the fore of political debate (or fudge) at the moment, useful to look at some of the foundations of the West’s economic success. A useful hint too at the changes that are shifting the balance in favour of the ‘The East’; perhaps, perhaps not so much as statistics suggest. What does seem clear is that the basic tenets of ‘growth’ and ‘prosperity’ are more widespread than ever and the economic divergence between nations is narrowing, to greater or lesser extent.

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Conservative policy generally seems to be one of practicality over principle, which would also seem to sum up David Cameron’s approach to most issues. Just as the new Conservative group in the European Parliament probably has more to do with domestic Party necessity than usefully making friends and influencing people (thedissenter), the Cameron policy of offering a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty is similarly practical.

Electorally, the Conservatives need a substantial swing to ensure a majority. UKPollingReport provides a fun way of keeping in touch with what the latest poll means with a simple swing calculator. A simple exercise on this swingometer shows the volatility of the electorate, and the electoral challenge that faces the Conservatives until May 2010.

This graph was grabbed on the 6th October.

This graph was grabbed on the 6th October.

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The final outcome of the Northern Ireland European Election poll is not that much different to that anticipated by thedissenter in early May. Even so, the election has has the potential to shake the consensus on which the Belfast Agreement stands or falls.  It was a better than expected election for Jim Allister of the TUV.

Jim Allister 1

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The UUP presents its link with the Conservative Party as a way of being at the centre of UK politics.  At the same time that link is likely to push the UUP to the margins of Europe.

The UUP alignment with the Conservatives is presented as part of a wider vision for ‘The Union’, and for the UUP to be at the centre of national discourse.  As we edge towards the European Election, should Jim Nicholson win one of the three Northern Ireland seats he will return to Europe as part of a Conservative led group at the margins of European discourse.

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Nominations open and posters appearing, an election is looming, so its time to take a view on the next few weeks of political cut and thrust, or not. There is not much excitement around a European election.

So looking forward (and that is said with all the enthusiasm mustered, which is not that great) the outcome of the vote for the Northern Ireland Members of the European Parliament, June 2009, is unlikely to deliver an electoral surprise. It is probable that the same three Parties will win the seats. That doesn’t mean that the voting spread won’t be of political interest; the biggest story may well be the decline in number of people being bothered to vote.

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