— thedissenter

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The Union

While it is hard to imagine the idea of an Official Opposition in the Northern Ireland Assembly as an alternative Government in waiting, presently, the value of an alternative voice is essential to any functioning democracy. No doubt.

What currently counts as opposition, by smaller parties and even the most gifted of individuals, is too easily dismissed and ignored. For now, admiration for those who might be keeping the big boys on their toes seems unlikely to translate into a significant electoral gain anytime soon.

John McCallister’s recent resignation from the Ulster Unionist Party follows on from his defeat as a leadership candidate, largely campaigning that the UUP should go into immediate opposition. Mike Nesbitt won that battle. However, Nesbitt’s unwillingness to consider going into opposition without the necessary legislative framework to make that ‘Official’ is not necessarily the best of politics. By not arguing strongly that the option should at least exist, and putting forward the case for the legislation to even enable the possibility of an ‘official’ opposition emerging at some point, he binds himself to a failing Executive, closes an option, and loses a valuable bargaining stance. More importantly, he also fails democracy in Northern Ireland: not that he alone carries that fault.

The previous Secretary of State Owen Patterson, and the current SoS Theresa Villiers, both seem to believe opposition might be a nice idea, but there is no urgency to make provision for an ‘Official’ opposition.  Opposition is not a matter for consultation, it a matter of urgency and essential for democracy to flourish. Legislation is essential to enable even the possibility of stronger democratic discourse emerging to better serve the people of Northern Ireland.

It is not that there is no case for the possibility of an ‘Official’ opposition, just that there seems to be no champion for the idea. Perhaps the Secretary of State ought to chat to one of her Cabinet colleagues. In 2000 Michael Gove wrote a pamphlet for the Centre for Policy Studies entitled ‘The Price of Peace’.  Simply and incisively, Michael Gove stated:

“The health of any democracy depends, pre-eminently, not on a single method of election, nor any specific doctrine of the separation of powers but on the freedom to oppose.”

It is hard to see how this argument could be challenged. Gove goes on to say of the structure of NI Government:

“The automatic inclusion of all major parties in power means there is no, can be no, alternative Government to vote into power if things go wrong. It is the threat of eviction from office which acts as a goad to efficiency in government and a guard against corruption. Take it away and you create an immovable oligarchy unresponsive to public anger or sentiment.”

Quite.

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The Northern Ireland Executive announced a Programme for Government 2012-2015, eventually, towards the end of 2011. Plenty to do. In fact, it reads as a massive ‘to do’ list.

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It was hard enough to achieve Conservative Party organisation in Northern Ireland in the first instance, back in the 1980s. Central office was hostile, and much of the Party leadership at best reluctant to become involved in the region. On the ground it might have seemed mad to set up Conservative branches in Northern Ireland at the end of 10 years of Thatcher Government and in the wake of the Anglo-Irish Agreement. There was also an Ulster Unionist Party which was dominant within the unionist electorate and, despite the recent history, remained on friendly terms with Conservatives generally at senior levels and in Parliament.

Despite the turmoil, naysayers, hostility and challenges, the determination of those early pioneers of the Conservative Party in Northern Ireland gained Council seats and had a reasonable stab at the North Down Westminster seat.

Fast forward thirty years and we find a Central Office bending over backwards to be helpful, a Party leader (now Prime Minister) who visits, espouses unionism, and encourages the local Party to be local and relevant to Northern Ireland.

Some local Conservatives, however, think the Conservative brand is bad and that is why they ended with nothing, zip, nadda after three consecutive elections – don’t think they see Jim Nicholson as ‘one of us’ – though some might point to other reasons for the Northern Ireland Conservatives to gain electoral traction.

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The News Letter Union 2021 Series of articles through the summer has been an interesting read.  It also provides thedissenter a useful way to address the second part of post-election review: Part 1 having looked at relative electoral strengths, historical and current.

Having looked at the News Letter’s list of questions thedissenter has reversed the order to start with consideration of what challenges 2011 might hold for Unionists. There is every indication that Sinn Fein is gearing up for another crisis and more talks within the next twelve months – chip, chip, chip. The big question is then ‘how prepared is Unionism for the road ahead to 2021 and beyond?’, including the challenge of starting to prepare for that journey now.

This is a slightly longer version than appears in the News Letter, free from the paper’s 600 word limit.

Don't worry about what is round the corner, just consider the light at the end of the tunnel.

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What has changed?

The 2010 Westminster election is over.  While the poll outcome was inconclusive the upshot is a decisive shift in British Politics where a progressive coalition has burst through the liberal centre/right. In the process, there were no important phone calls to the Northern Ireland parties, who now sit on the Parliamentary margins.

The debates on national television provided an energy to the national election. Locally the election campaign was as lacklustre and uninspiring as the Party leaders on the local TV debates.

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Gordon Brown’s efforts to ‘defend the Union’ continue to define Britain in his own image, Gordon Britannia, much like the Blair rebranding of Cool Britannia. He will ultimately fail if his government continues to act in such a way as to undermine the very values he purports to defend.

The Prime Minister dismisses anti-unionists as ‘those who argue for Scottish Separatism’ or ‘English Votes for English laws’. He assumes that we must all agree what a threat these people must pose to the Union. But neither of these groups appear to have plans to bomb the City of London.

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