The challenge for the Ulster Unionist Party AGM is threefold:
- That there must be a leadership capable of uniting the Party;
- That there must be a leadership capable of regaining the confidence and trust of the Unionist community;
- That there must be a leadership capable of providing professional and effective management of Party resources.
It was hard enough to achieve Conservative Party organisation in Northern Ireland in the first instance, back in the 1980s. Central office was hostile, and much of the Party leadership at best reluctant to become involved in the region. On the ground it might have seemed mad to set up Conservative branches in Northern Ireland at the end of 10 years of Thatcher Government and in the wake of the Anglo-Irish Agreement. There was also an Ulster Unionist Party which was dominant within the unionist electorate and, despite the recent history, remained on friendly terms with Conservatives generally at senior levels and in Parliament.
Despite the turmoil, naysayers, hostility and challenges, the determination of those early pioneers of the Conservative Party in Northern Ireland gained Council seats and had a reasonable stab at the North Down Westminster seat.
Fast forward thirty years and we find a Central Office bending over backwards to be helpful, a Party leader (now Prime Minister) who visits, espouses unionism, and encourages the local Party to be local and relevant to Northern Ireland.
Some local Conservatives, however, think the Conservative brand is bad and that is why they ended with nothing, zip, nadda after three consecutive elections – don’t think they see Jim Nicholson as ‘one of us’ – though some might point to other reasons for the Northern Ireland Conservatives to gain electoral traction.
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The Northern Ireland electorate heads towards the 5 May with little enthusiasm for the choice being presented, little interest in the institutions, and little understanding of what the Assembly has achieved over its past four years.
No doubt there will be general media attention in the run-up to the election on issues around the budget, perhaps, education, almost certainly, and health. Why bother? With all the main Parties at the Executive table, and assured a place if not the same seats following the election, the electorate has little alternative but to vote for the same old same old, or not at all.
Motivation has been hard to find at the outset of 2011. It’s election year, again. To get started, a view on where matters stand politically in Northern Ireland generally.
The UK Government’s economic measures to tackle the country’s financial deficit will start to impact on all citizens in 2011. It will be a tough year ahead for everyone. The cost of living is rising, with households already noticing increased costs creeping through to the weekly shopping. Just as households need to keep their spending under control, the need for good and efficient government at all levels is essential. Northern Ireland is not an exception in this regard.
Commentators seemed to view the overwhelming victory of Tom Elliott in the Ulster Unionist Party leadership contest as the Party taking a ‘traditional’ and safe option, rather than the more media savvy and ‘liberal’ option of Basil McCrea. There is something about that analysis that seems too simple to thedissenter.
What has changed?
The 2010 Westminster election is over. While the poll outcome was inconclusive the upshot is a decisive shift in British Politics where a progressive coalition has burst through the liberal centre/right. In the process, there were no important phone calls to the Northern Ireland parties, who now sit on the Parliamentary margins.
The debates on national television provided an energy to the national election. Locally the election campaign was as lacklustre and uninspiring as the Party leaders on the local TV debates.
Perhaps thedissenter should have commented in the run up to, and during, the election in Northern Ireland. But the build up to, and conduct of, the local campaigns was not exactly exciting; business beckoned, a bit of travel to be done, and it was time for a break.
So in retrospect and to bring thedissenter up to date…
All the ingredients were there: the crisis, the Prime Ministers, the big house, the Belfast Telegraph survey, the Parties doing all night sittings and the press pack. At the end of all that we have the “Agreement at Hillsborough Castle” as it is officially described. Not a deal. Not “The Hillsborough Castle Agreement”. Nothing definitive, just ‘agreement’ as part of a step process: same process as the “Agreement at St Andrews‘.
Recent events in Northern Ireland have raised the possibility that there may be an Assembly election before a Westminster election. Depending on how current talks at Hillsborough and elsewhere progress, and for other electoral factors, it may not be Sinn Fein that seeks an election either before or at the same time as the Westminster poll.
While generally there is nothing certain about the future, one 99.99% certainty for 2010 is a British Parliamentary Election. Voting must take place before the summer, and the general consensus is for a May poll, though March may still be possible if Gordon Brown wants to avoid an unpromsing budget and go for it.
Picture: parliament.uk picture gallery
The opinion polls are erratic, as discussed on thedissenter earlier, and the potential for a tightly hung Parliament is real. A party holding a small number of seats may gain considerable importance. So the performance of local parties is of national interest: though notional until the counts are complete.
In his speech to the recent Traditional Unionist Voice conference, Chairman of the National Grammar Schools Association, Robert McCartney, focused on the underlying conflict at the heart of the education debate in Northern Ireland.
Conservative policy generally seems to be one of practicality over principle, which would also seem to sum up David Cameron’s approach to most issues. Just as the new Conservative group in the European Parliament probably has more to do with domestic Party necessity than usefully making friends and influencing people (thedissenter), the Cameron policy of offering a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty is similarly practical.
Electorally, the Conservatives need a substantial swing to ensure a majority. UKPollingReport provides a fun way of keeping in touch with what the latest poll means with a simple swing calculator. A simple exercise on this swingometer shows the volatility of the electorate, and the electoral challenge that faces the Conservatives until May 2010.
This graph was grabbed on the 6th October.