— thedissenter

While it is hard to imagine the idea of an Official Opposition in the Northern Ireland Assembly as an alternative Government in waiting, presently, the value of an alternative voice is essential to any functioning democracy. No doubt.

What currently counts as opposition, by smaller parties and even the most gifted of individuals, is too easily dismissed and ignored. For now, admiration for those who might be keeping the big boys on their toes seems unlikely to translate into a significant electoral gain anytime soon.

John McCallister’s recent resignation from the Ulster Unionist Party follows on from his defeat as a leadership candidate, largely campaigning that the UUP should go into immediate opposition. Mike Nesbitt won that battle. However, Nesbitt’s unwillingness to consider going into opposition without the necessary legislative framework to make that ‘Official’ is not necessarily the best of politics. By not arguing strongly that the option should at least exist, and putting forward the case for the legislation to even enable the possibility of an ‘official’ opposition emerging at some point, he binds himself to a failing Executive, closes an option, and loses a valuable bargaining stance. More importantly, he also fails democracy in Northern Ireland: not that he alone carries that fault.

The previous Secretary of State Owen Patterson, and the current SoS Theresa Villiers, both seem to believe opposition might be a nice idea, but there is no urgency to make provision for an ‘Official’ opposition.  Opposition is not a matter for consultation, it a matter of urgency and essential for democracy to flourish. Legislation is essential to enable even the possibility of stronger democratic discourse emerging to better serve the people of Northern Ireland.

It is not that there is no case for the possibility of an ‘Official’ opposition, just that there seems to be no champion for the idea. Perhaps the Secretary of State ought to chat to one of her Cabinet colleagues. In 2000 Michael Gove wrote a pamphlet for the Centre for Policy Studies entitled ‘The Price of Peace’.  Simply and incisively, Michael Gove stated:

“The health of any democracy depends, pre-eminently, not on a single method of election, nor any specific doctrine of the separation of powers but on the freedom to oppose.”

It is hard to see how this argument could be challenged. Gove goes on to say of the structure of NI Government:

“The automatic inclusion of all major parties in power means there is no, can be no, alternative Government to vote into power if things go wrong. It is the threat of eviction from office which acts as a goad to efficiency in government and a guard against corruption. Take it away and you create an immovable oligarchy unresponsive to public anger or sentiment.”

Quite.

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The Smithwick Tribunal has been rumbling along with occasional interest from the media. It will rumble on a while longer.

Interest has been particularly excited when those active in politics, police or security services have made broad statements relating to the context of the period. Unsurprisingly.

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The challenge for the Ulster Unionist Party AGM is threefold:

  1. That there must be a leadership capable of uniting the Party;
  2. That there must be a leadership capable of regaining the confidence and trust of the Unionist community;
  3. That there must be a leadership capable of providing professional and effective management of Party resources.

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The Northern Ireland Executive announced a Programme for Government 2012-2015, eventually, towards the end of 2011. Plenty to do. In fact, it reads as a massive ‘to do’ list.

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The News Letter is attempting to stimulate debate around what legislation might be usefully presented at Stormont, with a series of articles entitled ‘Laws We Need’.

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It was hard enough to achieve Conservative Party organisation in Northern Ireland in the first instance, back in the 1980s. Central office was hostile, and much of the Party leadership at best reluctant to become involved in the region. On the ground it might have seemed mad to set up Conservative branches in Northern Ireland at the end of 10 years of Thatcher Government and in the wake of the Anglo-Irish Agreement. There was also an Ulster Unionist Party which was dominant within the unionist electorate and, despite the recent history, remained on friendly terms with Conservatives generally at senior levels and in Parliament.

Despite the turmoil, naysayers, hostility and challenges, the determination of those early pioneers of the Conservative Party in Northern Ireland gained Council seats and had a reasonable stab at the North Down Westminster seat.

Fast forward thirty years and we find a Central Office bending over backwards to be helpful, a Party leader (now Prime Minister) who visits, espouses unionism, and encourages the local Party to be local and relevant to Northern Ireland.

Some local Conservatives, however, think the Conservative brand is bad and that is why they ended with nothing, zip, nadda after three consecutive elections – don’t think they see Jim Nicholson as ‘one of us’ – though some might point to other reasons for the Northern Ireland Conservatives to gain electoral traction.

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From a TED presentation, historian Niall Ferguson looks at ’6 killer Apps’ that gained ‘The West’ economic success to date. With economy to the fore of political debate (or fudge) at the moment, useful to look at some of the foundations of the West’s economic success. A useful hint too at the changes that are shifting the balance in favour of the ‘The East’; perhaps, perhaps not so much as statistics suggest. What does seem clear is that the basic tenets of ‘growth’ and ‘prosperity’ are more widespread than ever and the economic divergence between nations is narrowing, to greater or lesser extent.

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The idea of the Big Society has certainly grabbed attention and excited a great deal of comment and debate; not always flattering though not exclusively negative.

It is hard to imagine where the idea of the Big Society might lead when the root of the idea is so unclear. Tim Montgomerie at ConservativeHome, while making every effort to be supportive, manages to only draw attention to the fluffy nature of the thinking around what is presented as David Cameron’s big idea.

There is the sense of things not being quite right when a speech on the subject is heralded in the press as the fourth ‘re-launch’.  Once a product fails in the market, the product needs reinvention, not just the message.

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The Northern Ireland electorate heads towards the 5 May with little enthusiasm for the choice being presented, little interest in the institutions, and little understanding of what the Assembly has achieved over its past four years.

No doubt there will be general media attention in the run-up to the election on issues around the budget, perhaps, education, almost certainly, and health.  Why bother? With all the main Parties at the Executive table, and assured a place if not the same seats following the election, the electorate has little alternative but to vote for the same old same old, or not at all.

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The short video at the bottom of this post is about as neat, succinct and certain in defining classical liberalism as you will find anywhere.  It builds on Dr Nigel Ashford’s short book Principles of a Free Society, commissioned by the Jarl Hjalmarson Foundation which identifies the core elements to a Civic Society: Democracy; Equality; Free Enterprise; Freedom; Human Rights; Justice; Peace; Private Property; The Rule of Law; and Spontaneous Order.

In Northern Ireland there are many who loosely use the term ‘liberal’ to flatter themselves. Mostly, they haven’t a Liberal ideal or principle in their head. They use the term ‘liberal’ in the same way as they talk of ‘rights’: a vague sense of moral superiority wrapped in rhetorical cliché.

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Motivation has been hard to find at the outset of 2011. It’s election year, again. To get started, a view on where matters stand politically in Northern Ireland generally.

The UK Government’s economic measures to tackle the country’s financial deficit will start to impact on all citizens in 2011. It will be a tough year ahead for everyone. The cost of living is rising, with households already noticing  increased costs creeping through to the weekly shopping. Just as households need to keep their spending under control, the need for good and efficient government at all levels is essential. Northern Ireland is not an exception in this regard.

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Commentators seemed to view the overwhelming victory of Tom Elliott in the Ulster Unionist Party leadership contest as the Party taking a ‘traditional’ and safe option, rather than the more media savvy and ‘liberal’ option of Basil McCrea.  There is something about that analysis that seems too simple to thedissenter.

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The posturing, positioning and indignant defiance over impending reduction in government expenditure is rife. But it is not just David Cameron who thinks Northern Ireland has a command economy that matches anything once boasted by the Soviet bloc.

In the rent-seeking economy of Northern Ireland, it is deemed politic to blame others for the withdrawal of funding across the economy.  It is also an indictment of both the poverty of aspiration and lack of imagination among the political class.

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The News Letter Union 2021 Series of articles through the summer has been an interesting read.  It also provides thedissenter a useful way to address the second part of post-election review: Part 1 having looked at relative electoral strengths, historical and current.

Having looked at the News Letter’s list of questions thedissenter has reversed the order to start with consideration of what challenges 2011 might hold for Unionists. There is every indication that Sinn Fein is gearing up for another crisis and more talks within the next twelve months – chip, chip, chip. The big question is then ‘how prepared is Unionism for the road ahead to 2021 and beyond?’, including the challenge of starting to prepare for that journey now.

This is a slightly longer version than appears in the News Letter, free from the paper’s 600 word limit.

Don't worry about what is round the corner, just consider the light at the end of the tunnel.

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There is no doubt that the Parades Commission has become an impediment to dialogue by acting in an arbitrary and inconsistent manner.  This may because the Commission is caught between it’s regulatory responsibilities, its inability to understand that it has no ‘public order’ role, and the tendency to accept advice or comment coming directly from politicians (or the NIO) as being of greater importance than the facts before them in a particular and local case.

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What has changed?

The 2010 Westminster election is over.  While the poll outcome was inconclusive the upshot is a decisive shift in British Politics where a progressive coalition has burst through the liberal centre/right. In the process, there were no important phone calls to the Northern Ireland parties, who now sit on the Parliamentary margins.

The debates on national television provided an energy to the national election. Locally the election campaign was as lacklustre and uninspiring as the Party leaders on the local TV debates.

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Perhaps thedissenter should have commented in the run up to, and during, the election in Northern Ireland. But the build up to, and conduct of, the local campaigns was not exactly exciting; business beckoned, a bit of travel to be done, and it was time for a break.  

So in retrospect and to bring thedissenter up to date…

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All the ingredients were there: the crisis, the Prime Ministers, the big house, the Belfast Telegraph survey, the Parties doing all night sittings and the press pack.  At the end of all that we have the “Agreement at Hillsborough Castle” as it is officially described.  Not a deal.  Not “The Hillsborough Castle Agreement”.  Nothing definitive, just ‘agreement’ as part of a step process: same process as the “Agreement at St Andrews‘.

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Recent events in Northern Ireland have raised the possibility that there may be an Assembly election before a Westminster election.  Depending on how current talks at Hillsborough and elsewhere progress, and for other electoral factors, it may not be Sinn Fein that seeks an election either before or at the same time as the Westminster poll.

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There is little honesty with adultery, not least towards the spouse who is unaware of the affair. It is a web of lies. The web of Iris Robinson grew complex: casual sex mixed with personal greed. Having persuaded others to provide £50,000 for the business of her young friend, she then seems to have decided that she should be rewarded with £5,000 cash. At this point, a quiet affair developed all the potential for financial scandal.

Does anyone seriously suggest that Iris Robinson would have told Peter Robinson all the details about her £5,000 kick-back, or her intention at some point to keep substantially more. The meetings, the go-between, the texts? Dishonesty underlies this story at every level.

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